Most of Age of Decay, however, is penned as straight-ahead forecast of how, starting around 2020, the era of continual growth gave way to a new age of “continuous contraction and decline.” With case studies of nations like Japan and Italy, Ismail shows the work behind his dire warnings of declining living standards, a shrinking tax base, continual shortages, and even a decline in institutional memory at businesses. Ismail’ persuasively demonstrates that it is likely that many nations will hit a “tipping point where they have too few essential workers to keep their societies functioning optimally.” Also convincing: his insistence that tech won’t solve all problems: “How do you automate nursing care for the aged,” he asks, “which requires compassion and interpersonal engagement?” Less persuasive is the argument that young workers’ tendency to change jobs suggests a lack of ambition in workers themselves.

Setting Age of Decay apart from some works about declining birth rates is Ismail’s embrace of immigration as a source of both workers and consumers, especially from Africa, whose “growing prominence and influence … on the future world stage cannot be overstated.” He warns that “populist political sentiment against immigration” in the U.S. could cause the nation “to lose its current advantage in worker-aged population.”

Takeaway: Alarming forecast of the impact of declining birth rates on economies and societies.

Comparable Titles: Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson’s Empty Planet, Dustin Whitney’s Demographic Deception.

Production grades
Cover: A-
Design and typography: A
Illustrations: A
Editing: A-
Marketing copy: A-